Republicans know Trump will be on the ballot in 186 days - and they're worried.

The absence of a visible leader of the Democrats will help, not hurt Democratic Party chances in the midterms.

From time to time you’ll hear Republican strategists explaining that the midterms won’t go that badly “because Trump isn’t on the ballot”. Other days, some of them will say Trump is such a powerful vote puller that he will be campaigning hard, and will deliver a surprisingly good outcome for his party.

The incumbent President is always a factor in mid-terms. In 18 of the last 20 midterms, the President’s party lost seats. The Senate picture is a bit more complicated because not all Senate seats are up for election at the same time, as is the case with the House.

Polls show Trump mired with miserable approval ratings. Ipsos put his favourability in the 30’s, as voters struggle to understand why he promised to bring prices down and has charged Americans billions in tariffs on imported goods, and sent the price of gasoline skyrocketing with an adventure in Iran that seems to have no exit plan. By many accounts, the world is 3-5 weeks away from a massive shock as supply chains for many products further disrupt businesses and farms and deliver consumer pain.

Sometimes you’ll hear commentators who want to be rid of Trump lamenting the fact that no one among the leading Democrats has really emerged as a popular champion of anti-Trump sentiment. The theory goes that it’s hard to imagine voters being motivated to turn out unless there is a galvanising voice for the Democratic or the anti-Trump pitch.

I’m not at all sure that’s the right take.

Trump is expert at very few things, but one thing he’s really good at is carving up his opponents. Why serve up that opportunity, if it might only get in the way of the rebuke voters are ready to send the Republican Party this fall?

On the other hand, Trump is terrible at acknowledging that anything isn’t going perfectly, according to plan, better than anything ever before. Just last week, he told voters that gas prices were lower than under Biden and that “affordability” was nothing more than the latest Democrat scam.

With no one to attack, and no ability to defend himself sensibly, Trump can remain the symbol of a status quo that people are sick and tired of. They don’t want the endless drama, they worry about the tensions that have deepened under Trump’s influence, and they think he’s lost the plot when it comes to the cost of living.

Democratic candidates can campaign against Trump if they feel that works in their district or state, or campaign against his economic track record if that works better. They don’t need to defend a front running candidate, who will inevitably have flaws that are hard to defend.

So let’s push this analysis out beyond the mid-terms.

The Democrats will almost certainly control the House of Representatives and have a 50% chance of controlling the Senate too.

The Republicans will no longer be able to run the country with Executive Orders, and a docile, Trump-fearing Republican conference.

The Democrats will have a race featuring a variety of interesting candidates (think Shapiro, Beshear, Moore, Ossoff, JB Pritzker, Newsom, Whitmer, among others), who will be new faces for many voters.

The Republicans will be looking at Vance versus Rubio, either of whom will seem like they are intending to be Trump’s third term, and will either have to defend everything he did or risk losing the MAGA core. They should be looking at renewal and a pivot, but it’s hard to see how they can do that, given that the Party is no longer an institution, but a vehicle for populist insurrection.