Liberals ahead by 8; Government satisfaction stands at 65%

The next 8 weeks may set the political context for the next couple of years, as policy directions turn to specific announcements and a budget lands with a lot of tangible detail.

Economic anxiety is high, the mood is tense. GDP is under pressure, tariff impacts are being felt. People are impatient for a return to more predictable times, a less stressed world. But most, at this point anyway, are not transferring these stresses into unhappiness with the newly elected government, or the Prime Minister.

As the Carney government moves into a fall that will be punctuated with major project announcements, a new budget and an Opposition Leader back in the House of Commons, let’s take a look at how public opinion has evolved since the summer began.

In each of June, July, August and September, Spark conducted national online surveys with more than 2000 respondents. Our samples are designed to be, and weighted to ensure, proper proportions of the population by region, age, gender and education. (We do not weight based on what respondents say was their past political behavior)

Our latest results have the Liberals ahead by 8 points. Over these months, Liberal support has ranged between 44% and 40%. Conservative support has traded between 29% and 32%. NDP support is flat, and the same is true for the BQ.

The Liberals have sizable leads in BC and Ontario (11 points in each case) and in Quebec (19 points) and in Atlantic Canada (15 points). The Liberals have a 16 point lead among those who say they are on the centre of the spectrum, and a 40 point lead on the left. Among those on the right, the Conservatives have a 37 point lead. Interestingly, the Liberals have a 4 point lead among business owners, not a group that had a good relationship with in recent years.

Approval of the performance of the federal government has shifted from 69% in June to 65% today.

Another question we track closely is whether, if an election were held soon, would people prefer to see the re-election of a Carney government, or the election of a Poilievre government. Our latest numbers find a 61%-39% advantage for the Liberals, which is also a bit off the sights we saw in July (65%-35%).

On this question the Liberals enjoy wide leads in most parts of the country, and only trail the Conservatives in Alberta, by 10 points. 69% of BQ voters and 74% of NDP voters would rather have Carney than Poilievre as PM. (18% of Conservative voters feel this way too.)

Carney’s personal popularity stands at 66%, Poilievre at 49%.

So what to make of this data?

After several months of continuing challenges working on our trading relationship with the US, passing key enabling legislation, launching a new defence direction, working on new trading relationships, creating policies to help buttress tariff affected sectors and preparing to announce major projects and deliver a budget with a mix of spending reductions and investment increases, the Carney government remains the broad preference among Canadians.

The next 8 weeks or so should offer a clearer picture, as policy directions turn into specific announcements, and a budget is tabled that will describe the government’s priorities with a level of tangible detail that people can evaluate and decide whether the government they have, is also the government they want or need.