Carney approval level hits 67%

Canada's new PM is accumulating - not shedding - political capital so far.

Lyndon Johnson famously talked about pushing ahead with the things he believed in, regardless of political risk, arguing ‘what’s the power of the Presidency for, if not to use it’.

The routine of politics is one of cycles - where newly elected leaders lose political support as they encounter problems, try to do difficult things, and annoy or disappoint people. No doubt such cycles will happen again.

But, so far, Mark Carney seems to be accumulating political capital, not spending it.

In our latest Spark Advocacy survey (June 6-9), two out of three (67%) approved of the way Carney was handing his responsibilities. Since the Liberals won the election with just under 44% of the popular vote, he’s been gaining support from people who marked a ballot for someone other than a Liberal.

Two thirds of those who voted BQ and 70% of those who voted NDP approve of the Carney government performance. But a bigger surprise is that 38% of those who cast a ballot for a Conservative candidate also feel that way.

We asked people to rate the performance of the government on 20 different issues. Across the 20 items an average of 73% said the government was doing a good or acceptable job. “Poor” ratings were offered on average by 28% - again remarkable given that most didn’t vote Liberal.

Obviously, it’s early days for people to be assessing the actions, as opposed to the intentions and tone of the government, but Carney deserves credit for a complete overhaul of how the Liberal government in Ottawa is being received by voters. And there can be little doubt that he is the driving force behind this shift.

As the news emerges that Pierre Poilievre will face a leadership vote within his party next January, his personality - which looked like a prime asset for the Conservatives through the end of last year - is more resembling a significant weight now that Carney is leading the Liberals.

Of those who have an opinion about these individuals, 67% say they have a positive view of Carney, compared to 51% for the Conservative leader. And below the top line, it will be sobering for Poilievre to note that his advantage among young people and men has evaporated. Carney is 10 points more liked among voters under 30, and 15 points more popular among men.

In Quebec, Carney is a whopping 36 points more popular than Poilievre. And while the Conservative leader has an advantage in Alberta, it’s smaller than one might expect.

A lot of voters who didn’t vote for Carney and the Liberals, are feeling optimistic about the way he is approaching the job. In my experience, this is less about the details of government policy to date as it is to the policy priorities he is communicating (he’s seen as focused on the right issues), his attitude (he’s seen as in public life for the right reasons - see an earlier post), and skill set (he’s seen as intelligent and qualified to lead when it comes to economic policy).

Finally, it’s also clear that most people are going to evaluate his performance not on an hourly, daily, weekly or even monthly basis - instead they will withold judgement and react to bigger picture events and trends rather than the daily skirmishes that fuel much of the coverage of day to day politics at the national level.