A tale of two leaders.

Ruthless, arrogant, reckless and hot tempered. People seldom vote for someone they describe this way. In Canada, anyway.

In our latest Spark Advocacy national survey, (September 5-8th, 2536 adult Canadians, nationwide) we probed public opinion about the traits of the leaders of the two biggest national parties.

What we found helps explain why many polls show a preference for Carney over Poilievre when the question is who would you rather have as Prime Minister.

About two thirds or more say the following traits describe Mark Carney well: calm/rational, understands the economy, has deep and useful experience, is thoughtful and strategic, and can make tough decisions.

Carney has at 12 to 28 point advantage over his Conservative rival when it comes to these traits. He also has a 16 point advantage on being “a kind person”, an 11 point advantage for being an “optimist at heart” “tries to understand others” “inspiring” and “can bring people together”. These are traits that attract votes, not push them away.

On the long list of attributes we tested, Poilievre was more closely associated with six items: “a background like most people” (a 3 point advantage over Carney), “in it for himself (+11) ruthless (+14) arrogant (+18) reckless (+15) and hot tempered (+20).

True, elections are about more than comparing leaders.

And being Prime Minister carries plenty of risk of turning people off, given the challenging decisions that lie ahead for Mark Carney.

Conservatives may dismiss these numbers as a snapshot in time. Or believe that Poilievre’s personality will appeal to just enough people to win the next time, even if he does nothing to address the edges that people don’t like. Or that tough choices will cut into the Prime Minister’s popularity in the months ahead.

Any of these scenarios is plausible, but each are more wager, than plan.

Poilievre has been a politician for 21 years. Carney for less than one. People have developed an opinion about the Conservative leader - they’re offering their judgment, not withholding it.

Finally it’s hard not to notice that a solid proportion of the Conservative voter pool has a positive view of Donald Trump, for whom “in it for himself” “ruthless”, “arrogant” and “reckless” seem more feature than a bug. It’s a style that generates plenty of enthusiasm among MAGA types, clearly.

Each of these two Canadian political leaders can see where they stand. One can choose to continue the path he has been on. The other shouldn’t, if he wants to win the next election.